The German economy is sending bad signals, and their recession could hit Hungary
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The German economy is sending bad signals, and their recession could hit Hungary

The indicator fell to minus 39.3 points from 54.3 points in February. The 93.6-point drop is the largest since the introduction of the ZEW index in December 1991 and the lowest level since the summer of 2019, mainly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions against Russia.

The assessment of the current situation has been slightly better than expected. The March indicator fell to minus 21.4 points from minus 8.1 points in February. Experts expected minus 22.5 points for March.

The expectation indicator for the inflation rate jumped by 107.7 points to 70.2 points, writes MTI.

Recession is becoming more likely. The conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are worsening Germany’s economic prospects. The fall in economic expectations is accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Therefore, experts expect stagflation in the coming months. The deteriorating outlook affects almost every sector of the German economy

Said Professor Achim Wambach, President of ZEW.

ZEW’s business confidence index for the dolar area fell to minus 38.7 points in March from 48.6 a month earlier, while the dolar area’s current economic situation fell by 22.5 points to minus 21.9 points. Inflation expectations for the dolar area jumped 104.6 points to 69.5 points.

The threat of a German recession is threatening the Hungarian economy: traditionally, domestic production and growth are heavily dependent on the Germans. This is due to the fact that according to the data of 2021, there were nearly 3,000 German companies operating in Hungary, which employ more than 200,000 people. All 4 foreign investments come to Hungary from German companies. Total merchandise turnover was $ 61,529 million, of which Hungarian exports were $ 33.38 billion. In the recent period, instead of exports, consumption has been a key element of growth in the Hungarian economy, but this is not a lasting change, so the loss of an important export market could be a serious problem.

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